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A well-known Indian analysts familiar in industry said the world's vegetable oil supply will be scarce started from October, as a result of palm oil will yield cycle has started to slow down; but only in adverse weather conditions, the price will be risen.
The world's major producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, come into palm oil high-yield cycle from last October. Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International, said the cycle may be concluded between June and September, 2008.
"If there are any weather problems, the price will rise. The biggest impact will be reflected in October and next February between the off-season production of palm oil," Mistry said in a three-day meeting of global palm oil interviews.
Mistry is responsible for the company's vegetable oil stock and bargaining. He will be released palm oil price forecast on Friday.
Mistry said Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to be 17 to 17.3 million tons this year, higher than the government expected 16,5 million tons.
Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association) said Tuesday that production is expected to gross 18,6 million tons of palm oil in Indonesia this year, higher than 17,18 million tons in 2007.
At present, palm oil fell about 21 percent from early March hit a record high of 4486 ringgit. In Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the price of soya oil has dropped about 15.5 percent from March as a record high of 0.7126 USD.
"If the prices at 3500 ringgit in period of palm oil high-yield, with a little week demand from China and India currently, then obviously we have to optimistic about the future trend," Mistry said.
He also said that the world's largest vegetable oil importer, China and India, will started to buy in the second half of this year, after experienced a few months increase of domestic stock.
He said that India may be import 0.5 to 0.7 million tons of vegetable oil between June to September, as a result of start of prepared stock before holiday season in August.
"The import of vegetable oil from India will be higher than people expected by the end of October this year, likely between 6 and 6.5 million tons."
Total volume of vegetable oil India imported is about 5.6 million tons in the 2006/07.
At present, the machinery of vegetable oil processing from China includes vegetable oil mills, vegetable oil solvent extraction and refining. As for palm oil expeller, it is a kind of special screw expeller, which called double shift palm oil expeller.

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